Panel Organizer:
Ms Veena Ravikumar - Lady Shri Ram College, New Delhi, India

Abstract
   

In the last few years South Asia has witnessed several dramatic developments. One major breakthrough was the 2004 January summit meeting of the SAARC in which it was unanimously decided to implement the long pending proposal to create the South Asia Free Trade Zone. Following this breakthrough the growing cordiality in the relations between India and Pakistan and a seeming agreement on a methodology to solve all outstanding problems between the two countries including the core issue of Kashmir has helped both the countries to focus on the more pressing economic issues. This trend has been reinforced by the agreement on building a pipe line across the territory of Pakistan to bring oil from Iran, although Pakistan chose to emphasise that this was a one-time exception to its general policy on negotiations with India. Bright prospects for mutually beneficial trade between India and Sri Lanka and between India and Bangladesh have also opened up. The turn around of Pakistan's economy and India's high rate of growth also seem to have changed the political agenda in South Asia.

It is of course necessary to weigh these trends of growing bonhomie in South Asia with some of the new trends that make for political instability in the region. For the last three decades, South Asia has been plagued with escalating terrorist violence. Yet, till recently, terrorism in South Asia seemed to have been confined to some pockets. Recent reports suggest however that a powerful network linking the LTTE in Sri Lanka with the Naxalites of India, the Jehadi militant groups of Pakistan, and with the Maoists of Nepal gives a new dimension to the problem of terrorism. Experts hold that a corridor of ‘liberated areas'-as the Maoists and Naxalites prefer to call areas in which they have established political control-now extends all the way from Nepal to Kerala in the south of India passing through the States of Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Even the powerful Government of India has now been gripped with self-doubt about ways of tackling the spreading terror from left extremism. Despite the spurt in Naxalite violence and reported demoralization of the police forces in Andhra Pradesh that followed the failure of talks between the Government of Andhra Pradesh and the Naxalite leaders, both the State government and the Union government seem to have no clue as to how to contain the spread of Naxalite movement, let alone uproot it. Recent reports of the meeting between the leaders of Maoist insurgency in Nepal and some Indian government officials and the inability of India to compel the King of Nepal to reinstate democratic processes in that country are real causes of concern not just for India but for the security of the whole of South Asia. Similarly, reports of LTTE possessing its own navy and of its acquisition of aircraft in an attempt to build its own air force demonstrate that the new equilibrium and harmony in the geo-politics of South Asia may suffer rude shocks in the future. The fact that the LTTE is being treated as a de facto state for distributing relief to the victims of Tsunami in Sri Lanka and the helplessness of the Sri Lankan government to assert its authority to distribute relief materials in the Tamil dominated areas will also pose serious problems for India's national security.

Another source of political instability in South Asia has been the rise of religious fundamentalism. Jehadi fundamentalism has spread beyond Pakistan to cover Bangladesh as well as Nepal where bases of Jehadi terrorist outfits have been established. Islamic fundamentalism has not spared even the Republic of Maldives. India is confronting both Jehadi fundamentalism and its consequent backlash of Hindutva militancy. True, ever since the US began its war on terror fundamentalist violence has abated somewhat and incidence of inter communal violence has come down but the reaction in Pakistan to the reported disrespect to Koran by the US military officers and the backlash to the release of a bollywood film with a title that adopts a Sikh cry of martyrdom while going on a holy war, warn that fundamentalism remains dormant and may erupt any time to disturb peace in South Asia.

While there is room for optimism about economic prospects of South Asia, it should also be acknowledged that the higher rates of growth achieved in the region are increasing income and social disparities and have created migration flows of desperate and deprived segments to the more prosperous regions in search of a source of livelihood. These migration flows be it from Nepal to India, Sikkim and Bhutan or from Bangladesh to India are also unsettling ethnic relations as well as international relations in South Asia. It is also important to note that there is an urgent need to adopt effective policies to eradicate poverty, gender disparities, illiteracy and continued incidence of high rates of infant mortality. It is said that even Sri Lanka which was way ahead of the other countries in South Asia on human development indicators, is now findng it difficult to maintain its high rating. India, Bangladesh and Nepal have pockets where the performance on human development indicators is worse off than in sub-Saharan South Africa. In terms of absolute numbers the problem of deprivation in South Asia is of continental proportions. Policies have to be implemented to bring the marginalized and deprived sections into the mainstream of economy in the shortest possible time which poses a gigantic challenge to South Asia.

Similarly, despite the fact that India offers a role model of democracy for the whole world, political trends indicate that authoritarianism is on the rise in South Asia. The take over of the state apparatus by the king in Nepal, the benevolent authoritarianism of President Musharaf in Pakistan, the growing strength of LTTE in Sri Lanka which is not committed to democracy and the earlier mentioned spread of Naxalite and Maoist insurgency, remind us that the battle for democracy is still going on in South Asia.

It is against this background that I am proposing a panel on "Détente in South Asia? Will it Hold?" I want to invite experts on South Asia to evaluate the South Asian conundrum that I have sketched above from a holistic perspective. I shall invite experts on the geopolitics of South Asia to contribute papers that address the questions that this panel raises by exploring the implications of economic, political and social trends that have been sketched above. I am optimistic that the papers presented in the panel would contribute to the formulation of new strategies for steering South Asia from the peril of instability and strengthen the trends of détente.

Shreya Jani, Samanvay Saath Saath, India
Towards a Pedagogy for Peace For Rebuilding South Asia
 
H.G. Wells in 1920s realised the important link between peace and education when he said, "Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe."
 
South Asia is home to 40% of the world's absolute poor, and has one of the lowest literacy rates in the world. Is Peace Education a realistic and workable ideal for this region?
 
The paper argues that it is imperative for such a region to engage in creating a space for peace education. In a region where large sections of society feel disenfranchised often leading to violent protests and insurgent activities it is important to equip all strata of society in the technique and methodology of peaceful conflict transformation. Mere literacy cannot achieve this goal, as it becomes a means to perpetuate the status quo without creating peaceful mechanisms to bring about social transformations. Détente in South Asia can only hold if functional mechanisms to deal with volatile situations are introduced and people are trained in peaceful conflict transformation.
 
Inspired greatly by Paulo Freire's groundbreaking work and the existing pool of knowledge and techniques developed in this region for a practical pedagogy for peace from Gandhi to Krishnamurti this paper aims at exploring the following: -
 
 
1.         Why pedagogy for peace?
2.         What does it mean in the context of South Asia.
3.         Methodology for Peace Education
(participatory learning, theatre, socio- cultural dimension etc)
4.         Steps taken in this direction by both governmental and non-governmental actors.
 
The tenor of this paper is more reflective than theoretical. It also anchors itself in the personal, drawing from experiences of participating in and observing various people's movements in the region as well as engaging in creating fora, which work towards building education systems based on dialogue and coexistence.
 
Riyaz Punjabi, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Centre for The Study of Social Systems
New Delhi, India
Détente in South Asia? Will it Hold?
 
South Asia  provides a  unique sub-system in the arena of international politics. The history of the region for the last more than half a century is beset with confrontations-overt and covert, rather than cooperation. It appears that the region is Indo-centric. The centrality of India's size, population and vast resources have made her neighbors apprehensive who perennially perceive (imagine) the hegemonic designs of India. Ironically, the neighbors of India do not share the common threat perceptions from India There is a divergence of these perceptions among the neighbors.
 
The  South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was formed to develop an understanding among the SAARC countries toward cooperation and economic development of the region. However, even the formation of this grouping has not prevented conflicts in  South Asia. The  Kargil conflict in J&K in the year 1999 provides an illustration to the point. The external intervention prevented this conflict to assume large dimensions with disastrous consequences. In the same vein, the SAARC spirit did not prevent  India and Pakistan to go overtly nuclear. One of the major drawbacks of the SAARC is that it prevents the member sates in holding  deliberations on bilateral political and contentious issues.
 
The new initiatives of moving towards  South Asian Free Trade Association (SAFTA) has raised the expectations that Détente is going to hold in South Asia. The fresh trade agreements between India and Pakistan, the rise in the bilateral trade, the opening of traditional motor and rail links which had remained closed since 1950  have raised the levels of optimism. A fresh initiative is envisaged between India -Bangladesh relations. In spite  of this optimism, it may be noted that the processes unleashed toward realizing the goal of SAFTA, have not acquired the requisite momentum. The clouds of suspicion cast their gloom once in a while. These developments might not  impact the détente but certainly puts it under strain.
 
Wolfgang-Peter Zingel, South Asia Institute, Department of International Economics
Heidelberg, Germany
On the Economics of Detente in South Asia
 
President's Bush recent visit to India and Pakistan underlined the increasing importance of these "strategic" partners in world affairs. Major deterrents are the ongoing dissent over Kashmir,cross-boundary terrorism and increasing social unrest. India, but also Pakistan and Bangladesh, have an impressive records to show in economic development. A few days earlier the old Jodhpur (now: Thar) railways resumed traffic after 40 years. So far the crossing at Atari/Wagahwas the only one along the long border between Pakistan and India from China to the Arabian sea. And this road and railway crossing saw very little traffic, indeed. For nationals of the two neighbours it was almost impossible to get permission to cross it. This despite twenty years of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, South Asian Preferential Trade Area and the proposed South Asian Free Trade Area.
 
India and Pakistan are spending substantial amounts of money for gearing up their armies, they fought several wars and are still engaged in a proxy war. They chose their ("non")alignments according to their strategic needs, they have been engaged in a nuclear and ballistic arms race that cost them much international sympathy and even chose their economic systems (more capitalist in Pakistan, more socialist in India) according to their strategic requirements. This conflict has been overshadowing other, economic and not less urgent trans-national problems like sharing water, trading energy, saving the environment and facilitating transport   and that not only between India and Pakistan, but among all eight (after the accession of Afghanistan)
SAARC members.
 
This paper aims at looking at South Asian detente from the economist's point of view. The basic assumptions are that a detente would free funds spent on defence and related purposes,that a free flow of goods and services (if not capital and people) would accelerate economic growth and that joint management would allow a more prudent use of natural resources
 
Siddharth Varadarajan, The Hindu, New Delhi, India
The United States as a Factor of Stability and Instability in Post 9/11 South Asia
 
Ever since India and Pakistan went openly nuclear by testing nuclear devices in May 1998, the standard discourse in most international commentary on South Asia has been to describe South Asia as a "nuclear flashpoint". The Kargil conflict of 1999 and the nearly year-long mobilization of Indian and Pakistani troops along the border in the aftermath of the terrorist attack on India's Parliament in December 2001 have contributed to this perception. Likewise, the assumption is often made of the United States as a factor for strategic stability in South Asia, not just because of its direct military presence in the region (i.e. Afghanistan and Pakistan) but also because of its capacity to urge restraint on New Delhi and Islamabad.
 
While U.S. pressure has played a stabilizing role in the past, there are also ways in which the United States's engagement with India and Pakistan and the wider South, South-West and Central Asian regions has the capacity to disrupt the process of détente in South Asia.
 
This paper will examine the multiple ways in which U.S. policies since 9/11 - its war on terror, its pressure on Iran on the issue of nuclear proliferation, and, most recently, its agreement on civil nuclear cooperation with India - are complicating the process of confidence-building between India and Pakistan.
 
The paper suggests that rather than playing a stabilizing role in South Asia, U.S. policies might actually be generating new instabilities. The pre-9/11 problematic of Washington urging restraint on India and Pakistan has, in the post 9/11 world, become inverted: how to restrain the exercise of U.S. power in South Asia and beyond is emerging as the principal foreign policy challenge for India and one which requires, above all, a determined push towards the resolution of conflicts and disputes with all its neighbours, especially Pakistan.
 
Veena Ravi Kumar, Lady Shri Ram College, Department of Political Science New Delhi, India
Prospects of Detente in South Asia: A Critical Review
 
In the last few years South Asia has witnessed several dramatic developments. One major breakthrough was the 2004 January summit meeting of the SAARC in which it was unanimously decided to implement the long pending proposal to create the South Asia Free Trade Zone. Following this breakthrough the growing cordiality in the relations between India and Pakistan and a seeming agreement on a methodology to solve all outstanding problems between the two countries including the core issue of Kashmir has helped both the countries to focus on the more pressing economic issues.
This trend has been reinforced by the agreement on building a pipe line across the territory of Pakistan to bring oil from Iran, although Pakistan chose to emphasise that this was a one-time exception to its general policy on negotiations with India. Bright prospects for mutually beneficial trade between India and Sri Lanka and between India and Bangladesh have also opened up. The turn around of Pakistan's economy and India's high rate of growth also seem to have changed the political agenda in South Asia.
 
It is of course necessary to weigh these trends of growing bonhomie in South Asia with some of the new trends that make for political instability in the region. For the last three decades, South Asia has been plagued with escalating terrorist violence. Yet, till recently, terrorism in South Asia seemed to have been confined to some pockets. Recent reports suggest however that a powerful network linking the LTTE in Sri Lanka with the Naxalites of India, the Jehadi militant groups of Pakistan, and with the Maoists of Nepal gives a new dimension to the problem of terrorism. Experts hold that a corridor of ‘liberated areas'-as the Maoists and Naxalites prefer to call areas in which they have established political control-now extends all the way from Nepal to Kerala in the south of India passing through the States of Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Even the powerful Government of India has now been gripped with self-doubt about ways of tackling the spreading terror from left extremism. Despite the spurt in Naxalite violence and reported demoralization of the police forces in Andhra Pradesh that followed the failure of talks between the Government of Andhra Pradesh and the Naxalite leaders, both the State government and the Union government seem to have no clue as to how to contain the spread of Naxalite movement, let alone uproot it. Recent reports of the meeting between the leaders of Maoist insurgency in Nepal and some Indian government officials and the inability of India to compel the King of Nepal to reinstate democratic processes in that country are real causes of concern not just for India but for the security of the whole of South Asia.
Similarly, reports of LTTE possessing its own navy and of its acquisition of aircraft in an attempt to build its own air force demonstrate that the new equilibrium and harmony in the geo-politics of South Asia may suffer rude shocks in the future. The fact that the LTTE is being treated as a de facto state for distributing relief to the victims of Tsunami in Sri Lanka and the helplessness of the Sri Lankan government to assert its authority to distribute relief materials in the Tamil dominated areas will also pose serious problems for India's national security.
 
Another source of political instability in South Asia has been the rise of religious fundamentalism. Jehadi fundamentalism has spread beyond Pakistan to cover Bangladesh as well as Nepal where bases of Jehadi terrorist outfits have been established. Islamic fundamentalism has not spared even the Republic of Maldives. India is confronting both Jehadi fundamentalism and its consequent backlash of Hindutva militancy. True, ever since the US began its war on terror fundamentalist violence has abated somewhat and incidence of inter communal violence has come down but the reaction in Pakistan to the reported disrespect to Koran by the US military officers and the backlash to the release of a Bollywood film with a title that adopts a Sikh cry of martyrdom while going on a holy war, warn that fundamentalism remains dormant and may erupt any time to disturb peace in South Asia.
 
While there is room for optimism about economic prospects of South Asia, it should also be acknowledged that the higher rates of growth achieved in the region are increasing income and social disparities and have created migration flows of desperate and deprived segments to the more prosperous regions in search of a source of livelihood. These migration flows be it from Nepal to India, Sikkim and Bhutan or from Bangladesh to India are also unsettling ethnic relations as well as international relations in South Asia. It is also important to note that there is an urgent need to adopt effective policies to eradicate poverty, gender disparities, illiteracy and continued incidence of high rates of infant mortality. It is said that even Sri Lanka which was way ahead of the other countries in South Asia on human development indicators, is now finding it difficult to maintain its high rating. India, Bangladesh and Nepal have pockets where the performance on human development indicators is worse off than in sub-Saharan South Africa.
In terms of absolute numbers the problem of deprivation in South Asia is of continental proportions. Policies have to be implemented to bring the marginalized and deprived sections into the mainstream of economy in the shortest possible time which poses a gigantic challenge to South Asia.
 
Similarly, despite the fact that India offers a role model of democracy for the whole world, political trends indicate that authoritarianism is on the rise in South Asia. The take over of the state apparatus by the king in Nepal, the benevolent authoritarianism of President Musharaf in Pakistan, the growing strength of LTTE in Sri Lanka which is not committed to democracy and the earlier mentioned spread of Naxalite and Maoist insurgency, remind us that the battle for democracy is still going on in South Asia.
 
Farid Ahamed, University of Chittagong, Department of Anthropology, Chittagong, Bangladesh
Trends and Strategies of Islamization in Chittagong, Bangladesh
 
In this paper I will contrast two avenues of fundamentalist or communalist sensibility and action in contemporary Bangladesh. These two strands are the major expressions of self-consciously ‘Islamic' sentiment in contemporary Bangladesh. The dialectic between them has, in certain arenas, displaced an earlier one between local and orthodox styles of devotion. This shift in the emphasis of public negotiations of Muslim identity is due to the combined effects of modernisation, internationalisation and the weakness of the Bangladeshi state.
           
Both streams are constituted by the presence of organisations whose structures enable them to operate in the public domain yet are exclusive and emphasis a distance from the general population. Both suggest modes of leadership from a religious standpoint, either ‘political' or ‘spiritual', and invite participation as a kind of activism  which is a step beyond regular living.  To understand something of these organisations is to see that there is a plurality of religious fundamentalisms in Bangladesh, as elsewhere in the Muslim world. Shifts in public sentiment about religion and communal identification, are partly propelled by the activities of these organisations, which emphasise the distance between the ideal and the present by their very efforts to bridge it. This distance is dramatised as a distance between informed Muslims, whether 'learned in scripture' or the ‘vanguard of the Islamic revolution', and those whose hostility, disinterest or fear has to be countered.
 
I offer here some fragments of a much larger picture which is changing all the time, in the hope that they will help show the diversity and particularity of the institutional cultures, private sentiments, social aspirations and economic necessities which mould, and are moulded by, the call to Islam.
 
Georg Pfeffer, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany    
External Détente and Internal Discontent: an Anthropologist Looks at South Asia
 
During the last years, fundamental changes in the foreign policies of both India and Pakistan have, for the first time, raised hopes for an end of the nuclear confrontation and a basically peaceful relationship between the two states that would enhance the success of the new economic policies. Whereas Pakistan, in the field of the industrial economy, never had a relevant "public sector" to be dismantled, the Indian "liberal turn" since 1991 implies a parallel development in the field of external conflict management. On the other side of the border, military rule is probably more informed of the nuclear hazards than civilian leaders, just as the financial collapse of Pakistan in the late 1990s left no alternative to an external policy of moderation.
While the slogan of a socialist "gharibi hatao!", meant for the masses, has been substituted by the liberal "enrichez vous!" addressed to the Indian bourgeoisie, and while the traditional graft of the Pakistani class of landlords is being directed into the avenue of a growth economy, large sections of the Islamic Republic remain helpless spectators of the recent economic boom, just as the industrial labourers or the farmhands and small farmers of Bharat Mata experience acute poverty. The latter, on a scale increasing year-by-year, turn to the forces of rural desparados - under the banner of the extreme left -  while the disinherited Pakistanis will find the militant religious fanatics to be equally puritan and radical. While the subcontinent's growing number of affluent citizens, and even a growing middle-class, seems to see the peace dividend and influence the politicians accordingly, a growing section of the poor, still the largest component of  the subcontinental society, seems to turn to what is generally known as terrorism.